Background knowledge

There are 3 major parties in Canadian elections (Liberals (Centre-left), Conservatives (Right), & New Democratic Party (Left)), with several minor parties (Green (Centre-Left), Bloc Quebecois (Centre-Left), etc.). Some are more local parties than others (ie. Bloc Quebecois does not run outside of Quebec – to my knowledge). In the Ontario Provincial Election, the 3 major parties were against each other with the incumbent Liberals facing against the other two. There was a vocal amount of people who did NOT want the Conservatives to win, however I felt they had a good chance because the other 2 parties were splitting the rest of the vote. This made me create this analysis to see if the Conservatives could have lost.

Elections in Ontario are settled by a first-past-the-post system. This means that the party who gets the most number of seats in the legislature wins the election. There are proposed alternatives to this system but elected officials seems unwilling to make any actual change.

End of Background Knowledge

 

I decided to do an analysis of the 2018 Ontario Provincial Election. I looked at each riding to see if another party could’ve won. Assuming all calculations are correct, the Conservatives would’ve won in all but 1 possible scenario.

Check it here: https://tinyurl.com/y8wvr8y8

If I learned anything from this, it’s that the vote was split between Liberal and New Democratic Party, causing the Conservatives to have an easy win. It would’ve taken serious strategic voting for another result. Alternatively, with proportional representation, it could have been a minority Conservative government.

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